The Patek Philippe Cubitus Collection of 3 watches with a diameter of 45mm (5821/1A,5821/1AR, and 5822P) was introduced in October 2024 to extremely negative online commentary. Much was also written about Thierry Stern’s interview, with accusations of arrogance and mis-management of the company. It has been 6 months since the 45mm Cubitus’s were first available at authorized retailers, so I was curious to assess the current consumer sentiment, especially of those who actually examined the watch in person. I gathered and parsed 29 social media/forum threads and 30 comments from X, both of which included feedback from individuals who actually tried on or physically interacted with the 45mm Cubitus. I also parsed/compiled a sample of 218 comments from this Oct 17 Hodinkee article. I then fed them into several different LLMs (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) and prompted as follows:
Do those who have seen the Cubitus in person mostly have a positive or negative view? What is the view (positive or negative?) of commenters who show no evidence of having seen it in person? Please exclude journalists and journalist comments.
The results were all similar, but I paste below the response from Gemini, which was the most succinct and easiest to read. It even added emphasis in bold by itself:
Based on the provided sources and our conversation history, here's an analysis of the views on the Patek Philippe Cubitus, differentiating between those who have seen it in person (excluding journalists) and those who have commented without indicating in-person experience:
Views of those who have seen the Cubitus in person (excluding journalists):
Individuals who explicitly state they have seen or tried on the Cubitus in person, apart from journalists, tend to have a view that is more positive, or less negative, than the initial reactions commonly seen based on photographs. A key point frequently mentioned by this group is that the watch appears better when viewed physically.
One commenter who tried the Cubitus at an exhibition noted that it "wears well even for a small wrist". They felt that "it doesn’t look as bad as it seems" and looks "very nice" in person. This individual concluded that "the hate is unwarranted", although they understood the disappointment regarding Patek's first new collection in 25 years.
Another individual who saw the Cubitus in person for the first time reported being "very pleasantly surprised" and, after previously being "dismissive of it after seeing pictures online", added it to their list, calling it a "good looking watch".
An observer at a watch event noted that the Cubitus on a guest "didn't look that bad in-person", although they added that "didn't look terrible" might itself be an "indictment on the design". This same observer noted the general vibe at the event was not positive regarding the Cubitus.
Overall, the sentiment among non-journalists who have physically encountered the Cubitus is often one of pleasant surprise or finding it more appealing than expected from photos, suggesting the in-person experience softens some of the criticisms.
Views of commenters who show no evidence of having seen it in person:
The sentiment among commenters who express opinions without stating they have seen the Cubitus in person is overwhelmingly negative. These views appear to be primarily based on photographs, reports, and initial impressions.
Common criticisms from this group include:
Negative Aesthetics and Perceived Lack of Refinement: Many commenters describe the watch as "ugly", "hideous", "horrendous," or feeling it "looks like absolute crap" in photos. It's perceived as "very unrefined", not meeting Patek's standards, and its perceived quality is unfavorably compared, with one commenter stating the "look of quality on that case will take second to a Walmart Casio". Some call it "arguably the WORST watch Patek has released".
Derivativeness and Lack of Innovation: Critics frequently see the design as "completely derivative of the Nautilus", even sharing the same bracelet. It is called "so lazy", a "variation upon a theme," a "Nautilus copy", or "me too" when compared to watches like the Cartier Santos. Concerns are raised about the movement not being shaped to the case, the dial being an adaptation of the Nautilus, and the absence of a metal bracelet option, suggesting a "massive cost saving/optimization strategy" that feels "loveless". One commenter feels it's more in the "Richard Mille camp" than the Nautilus camp and a "bad joke".
Size and Proportions: The watch is often described as too big, looking large on the wrist, and potentially out of proportion to the bracelet. Thierry Stern stated the watch is 45 millimeters but that there will be other sizes.
Price: The price is considered "insane", with the steel model being priced about 40% more than the discontinued steel Nautilus 5711. It is seen by some as an "overpriced 222 and PRX look alike".
Disappointment: Many express disappointment that this is Patek's first new collection in 25 years.
Criticisms of Patek's Strategy and Leadership: Some commenters feel Patek has "forgotten its DNA" and become too "commercial", or that they are "taking the piss" or show "contempt" for "new money" collectors. Thierry Stern's comment that "Most of the haters are people who have never had a Patek and never will" also drew significant negative reactions from commenters.
Despite the dominant negativity from this group, a minority hold more positive or neutral views:
Some commenters simply state they think "it’s cool" or "like the Cubitus more as a design" than the Nautilus. One commenter called it a "slam dunk!!" and another found it to be a "contemporary move for Patek Philippe and totally achieves its aims".
A recurring prediction is that, like the Nautilus and Aquanaut before it, the Cubitus might eventually become popular or even an "iconic masterpiece" over time.
In summary, there is a distinct difference in sentiment. Those who have seen the Cubitus in person (excluding journalists) generally report a more positive or less negative experience than anticipated from photos, often noting that it looks better live. In contrast, commenters whose opinions are not explicitly based on in-person experience are largely negative, heavily criticizing the design, perceived lack of originality, price, and Patek's approach.
I plan on doing these sentiment analysis regularly. Some charts and screenshots I compiled:
And here is an astute analysis by
from their post from Nov 2024:Ultimately, Patek Philippe chose to capitalize on an existing success by using the Cubitus to help meet the insatiable demand for sports watches. In fact, as can be seen in the photo above, the steel Nautilus with olive dial, similar to the Cubitus 5821/1A is still trading at +665.55% over list.
As early market data shows, this strategy appears to be working, with the Cubitus fitting seamlessly into current market preferences. However, true icons endure beyond passing trends, and only time will tell if Patek Philippe’s approach with the Cubitus will prove to be a wise decision.
Who’s afraid of tariffs when demand is so inelastic that the curve actually slopes upward?
I visit my brick and mortar retailer customers several times a year, and usually hang out at their store(s) for many hours, sometimes even assisting on the floor with walk-ins. Consumer-facing retailers benefit from a unique feedback loop via the direct interactions and physical behavioral cues of the consumers who physically visit and interact with the inventory. A consumer’s positive language-based (text or even verbal) feedback alone is not a reliable predictor of sales. The physical feedback loop shapes retailers’ sourcing strategy, and ultimately their intermediation value. (This is actually a very important topic that deserves its own post.)
Although I cannot confirm it, my general impression is that the majority of people who visit brick and mortar stores to interact with and buy watches do not spend much time commenting on watches online. Values are also diverse - for example, many are perfectly fine with replaced components or service parts, as long as they are genuine. I have also noticed that more and more people mention YouTube videos as the reason they decided to visit a store. Most stores nowadays have sparse, neo-classic interiors with abundant lighting, clean displays and leather trays. Lots of time spent trying on and adjusting straps and bracelets.
Another interesting exercise is to sit at an old school watchmaker’s shop for several hours and observe the people coming in. In most working class neighborhoods, the overwhelming majority of repairs are battery changes, and a non-trivial amount of watches brought in are fakes. Many 1990’s/2000’s Breitling chronographs being dropped off or picked up. Huge safes and lots of memorabilia, old photos and dusty catalogues. Generational clientele bringing in watches, jewelry, clocks, even cameras and bicycles. In terms of inventory, quartz-powered Seiko seems to still be king, and Seiko’s casually dressed sales reps are indistinguishable from sales reps selling kitchenware or home appliances. The tick-tocking of the wall clocks is never-ending.
If you go to a dealers’ watchmaker, usually on the upper floors of a nondescript or jeweler’s building, it will be like a doctor’s office, with dealers knocking, buzzing, opening the door, “is it working?”, no place to sit, “give me a couple hours”, drawers clanging, cellphone ringing, “did he buy it?”, “I’ll call you back”, ‘foreign language’, then leaving, “I’ll be back”, closing the door, “caseback is not opening”, coming back, still no place to sit, buzzer, opening the door, “how is it going?”, “what do you think its worth?”, buzzer again….
But I digress.