The Quartz Discount Part 2

Aug 05, 2024

First, Some Data

The following chart summarizes listing data from Chrono24 for watches from 9 premium Swiss brands1 labeled men’s/unisex2, powered by a quartz movement, year of production ‘1999 and prior’ vs ‘2000 and later’. Only references with 3 or more listings were included in the Top 5 list:

1999 and Prior (Vintage)

All of the vintage Top 5’s are cased in 18K yellow or white gold but generally priced at multiple(s) to their gold value. Excluding a full pave diamond AP, the Rolex Oysterquartz Ref 19168 with diamonds is the most expensive vintage luxury quartz watch, offered at $152K. The highest average price AP was the Ref 56023BA at $29,370 (Sample size: 3).

The most common vintage quartz watch offered at $10K or more was the Rolex Oysterquartz Day-Date Ref 19018 with 83 examples on offer and average price of $16,713. The Ref 19018 with single quickset date function could be a bellwether for the vintage quartz market due to the much larger supply compared to other references. The Chrono24 5-year historic price chart for a champagne dial Ref 19018 is as follows:

In comparison, here is the equivalent chart for a comparable mechanical automatic Day-Date Ref 18038, champagne dial, also a single quickset:

2000 and Later (Modern)

There were 169 listings of quartz powered men’s/unisex watches, produced in 2000 and later, offered at $10k and above from 9 premium Swiss brands3. That is less than half of the equivalent produced in 1999 and prior.

Of the 169, there were 14 Audemars Piguets and 7 Rolexes, but these were mostly from the very early 2000’s, meaning these 2 brands today have basically abandoned quartz all together. Cartiers’ made up 45% of modern luxury quartz and were mostly different iterations of the Tank, but at a lower average price point of $14K.

Take-Aways

Firstly, it is important to keep in mind that these are Chrono24 prices, not auction or street prices. That being said, there are several things we can take away from this data. (There are more, but I try not to give out valuable information for free):

Vintage (men’s/unisex) luxury quartz is pretty rare - only 370 watches globally above $10k available on offer on Chrono24. I didn’t have enough time to completely clean the data for mislabeling errors (such as ladies watches labelled as men’s) so the true number is probably even less.
These do not seem to be prices for watches devoid of emotional connections - buyers either have some emotional connection with old quartz, or they value the watch/brand as a whole. Note that all vintage Top 5 watches have a seconds hand that ticks, making them obvious quartz watches to even the casual observer.
The PP 3587 is the star of vintage luxury quartz, yet it is offered at perhaps half the average price of a PP 3700. As of August 1, 2024, there were 100+ offers of the Ref 3700’s vs 3 of the Ref 3587.
If confidence in the longevity of quartz increases (and values shift), it is possible that the Top 5 vintage quartz references listed above will be among the most coveted of vintage watches.
Based on the historical Chrono24 price charts of the quartz 19018 and mechanical 18038 above, we can conclude that there is not much of a difference in the pricing for either. In other words, there is no quartz discount and both are in line with current market price trends. Perhaps this reflects the market’s confidence in the longevity of Oysterquartz and availability of spare parts and movements. Rarity and the Genta-esque shape of the 19018 case may also be offsetting a hidden discount due to repairability anxiety.
Both Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet quartz watches are offered at a significant discount to their automatic counterparts. Note that PP quartz watches such as the 3603 and 3587 are very 70’s-design influenced, so they could experience some softness when the current trend for 70’s watches shifts. AP quartz watches are mostly Royal Oaks, the design of which is considered to be timeless and iconic.
At only 33mm in diameter, the 18KYG PP Ref 3900 is a small quartz watch on paper. Smaller watches are usually discounted heavily, but the 18KYG Ref 3900 averages a strong $36K. Yes, this is half the Chrono24 price of a 37mm 18KYG 3800, but it still seems pretty strong for a 33mm quartz watch (btw these are Chrono24 prices, not auction or street prices). Perhaps the demographic that purchases quartz watches is different, or maybe it fits in well with the current trend for more elegant, smaller watches. I am a fan.
Modern men’s/unisex luxury quartz is even rarer than vintage - only 169 watches $10k and above available on Chrono24. Of those, most are actually unisex. Therefore we can conclude that today, men have a very strong preference for mechanical movements at higher price points and brands supply accordingly.
33% of vintage quartz men’s watches (370 out of 1130) are priced at $10k and above, vs only 17% for modern quartz. Quartz has hence been demoted as a technology for higher-end men’s watches.
Rolex has abandoned their highly regarded Oysterquartz movement, and there are no modern quartz AP’s. Comparing vintage and modern Top 5s, we find that Rolex is gone and replaced by FP Journe, while the Pateks are now all iterations of one model, the Aquanaut. So today we essentially only have 2 modern luxury quartz watches - the Aquanaut and Elegante. This is followed at a much lower price point by Cartiers. Average prices of the Top 5’s look similar, but note that several of the modern pieces are diamond-encrusted.
The big 39mm Texano has been replaced by the bigger Elegante at the No. 2 spot.
In Part 1, I compared the prices of automatic and quartz Royal Oaks and Cartier Tank Louis’ that looked virtually identical to calculate the “quartz discount” (30% and 36% respectively). As there are no modern Royal Oaks with quartz movements, I was only able to do the same for modern Cartier Tank Louis’. There are only 41 18KYG 2000 and later production Tank Louis’ on offer (excluding new product), of which 17 are mechanicals averaging $14.5K and the rest quartz, averaging $9.3K. Incredibly, the “quartz discount” is again 36% (I did not massage the numbers). Hence the “quartz discount” of 36% for Cartiers persists into the modern age.

Thinking About the Future

Should brands reassess luxury quartz for men’s watches? Neither Rolex nor AP has a men’s quartz watch in production today.

Pre-2022, we focused on dial design and sizing. Post-2022 we have been focused on case shapes, patterns and materials. As we are still firmly in the Instagram/TikTok age, it does not seem likely, but could the next focus be on movements? Most do not remember or know, but there was a time when collectors bought watches for their movements, and did not care if a dial had been retouched or replaced. Will a focus on movements force us to re-evaluate quartz? If marketed well, maybe a second quartz crisis or mini-quartz bubble? If so, which brands will have the technology, R&D budgets, and manufacturing capability to supply luxury quartz or quartz-derivative movements?

In contrast to men’s watches, a significant percentage of modern luxury ladies’s watches are quartz-powered. Women are perhaps less susceptible to marketing about the complexities of mechanical movements, and place a more holistic value on the brand/model. Men seem to place more value on mechanical movements with a high amount of “human touch” in the manufacturing process, and have higher repairability anxiety regarding quartz. However, some vintage quartz movements such as the Oysterquartz are highly valued among enthusiasts, and empirically, have been ticking away fine for decades (if regularly maintained). Perhaps men should put aside their obsessions with mechanicals and learn from the ladies?

I do not have the answers to any of these questions, except I do know that values and behaviors change, and what was once unthinkable can become the norm.

Regular monitoring of the “quartz discount” could help us figure out where we are headed.

There are much more interesting and volatile developments in lower-end Cartier-quartz land, but that is for a different post.

Personal Vintage Quartz Favorites

A personal favorite is the stainless steel 33mm quartz 56175ST, of which there are only 5 on offer on Chrono24 with black dial and straight logo. Average Chrono24 price of $20K, and between $16K-$24K depending on condition and accessories. The smaller width makes it feel at home among the dressy Cartiers and Piagets that are so popular now. And as a two-hand watch without a ticking seconds hand, it is “stealth-quartz.”

Note that on June 25, an 18KYG version of the 56175ST, the 56175BA, hammered at Hindman’s Auctions for $16,510 inclusive of buyer’s premium. There is only one 56175BA on offer on Chrono24, asking $22k with less desirable champagne service dial. You can infer from this data point that pricing of vintage quartz is not very straightforward, and there are both tremendous opportunities and pitfalls.

Audemars Piguet 56175BA, Image Source: Hindman Auction

Another personal favorite is the Rolex Oysterquartz Ref 19028, of which there are only 6 on offer on Chrono24, with an average price of $32K. The 19028’s are identical to the 19018’s, except the bezel and bracelet have a unique steampunk pyramid hobnail pattern. The bracelets on these remind me of the original waffle straps that came on the much more pedestrian Seiko 6105-8110 “Captain Willard” diver’s watches. The below example hammered at LoupeThis last year for $17.6K. As with the 56175BA, pricing confidently is difficult.

Infinite Breguet Substack

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