Thank you! Everywatch looks great. Whereas most aggregators are brokers and charge the 1-3% aggregator fee on hammer, I guess Everywatch just directs you to the auction house’s site so you can register and bid directly, for a monthly fee. I think Invaluable is trying to eliminate the 1-3% aggregator fee by offering the auction houses a tiered fee structure instead. But Everywatch’s site has different listings (even Loupe This listings) and is pretty cool 👍🏻
I have it on good authority Everywatch is a sham. Little to no actual AI is being used in their platform. @Hamza bring this up in the group chat and someone in there will explain. George, if you’re interested in joining a watch collectors WhatsApp group let me know.
Very thoughtprovoking read. Go fig, George - I enjoy your writing about watch auctions _and_ tech-driven disruption of watch auctions.
> Large swathes of schema-heavy apps (such as LiveAuctioneers) will be replaced by powerful schema-less, specialized applications that can communicate with each other using strings of natural language. ChatGPT may confuse you into thinking that LLM’s are just a better way to search for things, but they are also actually the backend pipe that allows communication between apps.
> In addition to generative AI for better listing descriptions, I have my own list of how I expect AI to affect auctions in general, including [...]
I agree with you that large action models represent a significant opportunity area for AI, including apps like Vercel's [v0.dev](https://v0.dev/) and [the Rabbit r1](https://www.rabbit.tech/), but this currently represents a significant unknown area. Governance will be critical. Imagine if two interacting LLMs send invoices to a "George T." instead of a "George H.," such that a well-known Star Trek actor begins receiving checks for your vintage watch auction sales? ATG could easily solve this with human intervention, but such a solution limits potential labor cost savings.
On the other hand, I suspect AI will apply very successfully to authentication and screening if standardization can take place. A joke in today's tech industry states that folks considering AI applications should reflect on whether they'd accept the work product of 1000 interns tasked on a single problem. That's far more acceptable for authenticating vintage pieces from Omega and JLC than, say, issuing invoices and payments. Build a strong image recognition app using expert-curated media (dealer images and videos, say), sell access to your authentication API per call or at a monthly rate, and send your clients a lightbox and clear guidance for taking photos. Voila - you've saved millions in costs through less grunt work at auction houses.
Discussion of innovation through software has reached cliche levels, but monolithic companies with aging tech like ATG are often ripe for disruption by modern software. I feel it's far more likely that various aspects of ATG's business are unbundled into horizontal, cross-cutting capabilities (eg. listing aggregation and recommendations through algorithmic curation, lot authentication via image recognition, and inventory sourcing through automated financial operations) than ATG catching up in this area.
Thank you for a wonderful and very insightful comment A! I'm usually skeptical of product demos, but the Rabbit demo was really eye-opening for me. I'm in no way an expert, but I figured if they can develop the technology to increase accuracy, LAM's would become ubiquitous. I agree that AI will apply very successfully to image/video screening and authentication, although in my opinion it's not easy to do for watches because they are 3 dimensional objects with many components and a reflective crystal that makes photography hard. For example art or baseball cards should be easier. But as you said if standardization of photos/videos (or perhaps some other form) is accepted it will eventually be done and will have tremendous benefits, reducing perceived risk and allowing better curation and cataloguing, not just for watches but all collectibles. This is important because the luxury collectibles alone are estimated to be $400-$500Bn and increasing each year, which is not a trivial amount.
What a fascinating and illuminating read! I’m curious where you think auctions aggregator Every Watch fits in this landscape?
Thank you! Everywatch looks great. Whereas most aggregators are brokers and charge the 1-3% aggregator fee on hammer, I guess Everywatch just directs you to the auction house’s site so you can register and bid directly, for a monthly fee. I think Invaluable is trying to eliminate the 1-3% aggregator fee by offering the auction houses a tiered fee structure instead. But Everywatch’s site has different listings (even Loupe This listings) and is pretty cool 👍🏻
I have it on good authority Everywatch is a sham. Little to no actual AI is being used in their platform. @Hamza bring this up in the group chat and someone in there will explain. George, if you’re interested in joining a watch collectors WhatsApp group let me know.
Thanks would love to join 👍🏻
Very thoughtprovoking read. Go fig, George - I enjoy your writing about watch auctions _and_ tech-driven disruption of watch auctions.
> Large swathes of schema-heavy apps (such as LiveAuctioneers) will be replaced by powerful schema-less, specialized applications that can communicate with each other using strings of natural language. ChatGPT may confuse you into thinking that LLM’s are just a better way to search for things, but they are also actually the backend pipe that allows communication between apps.
> In addition to generative AI for better listing descriptions, I have my own list of how I expect AI to affect auctions in general, including [...]
I agree with you that large action models represent a significant opportunity area for AI, including apps like Vercel's [v0.dev](https://v0.dev/) and [the Rabbit r1](https://www.rabbit.tech/), but this currently represents a significant unknown area. Governance will be critical. Imagine if two interacting LLMs send invoices to a "George T." instead of a "George H.," such that a well-known Star Trek actor begins receiving checks for your vintage watch auction sales? ATG could easily solve this with human intervention, but such a solution limits potential labor cost savings.
On the other hand, I suspect AI will apply very successfully to authentication and screening if standardization can take place. A joke in today's tech industry states that folks considering AI applications should reflect on whether they'd accept the work product of 1000 interns tasked on a single problem. That's far more acceptable for authenticating vintage pieces from Omega and JLC than, say, issuing invoices and payments. Build a strong image recognition app using expert-curated media (dealer images and videos, say), sell access to your authentication API per call or at a monthly rate, and send your clients a lightbox and clear guidance for taking photos. Voila - you've saved millions in costs through less grunt work at auction houses.
Discussion of innovation through software has reached cliche levels, but monolithic companies with aging tech like ATG are often ripe for disruption by modern software. I feel it's far more likely that various aspects of ATG's business are unbundled into horizontal, cross-cutting capabilities (eg. listing aggregation and recommendations through algorithmic curation, lot authentication via image recognition, and inventory sourcing through automated financial operations) than ATG catching up in this area.
Thank you for a wonderful and very insightful comment A! I'm usually skeptical of product demos, but the Rabbit demo was really eye-opening for me. I'm in no way an expert, but I figured if they can develop the technology to increase accuracy, LAM's would become ubiquitous. I agree that AI will apply very successfully to image/video screening and authentication, although in my opinion it's not easy to do for watches because they are 3 dimensional objects with many components and a reflective crystal that makes photography hard. For example art or baseball cards should be easier. But as you said if standardization of photos/videos (or perhaps some other form) is accepted it will eventually be done and will have tremendous benefits, reducing perceived risk and allowing better curation and cataloguing, not just for watches but all collectibles. This is important because the luxury collectibles alone are estimated to be $400-$500Bn and increasing each year, which is not a trivial amount.
Great stuff George. I think we’re still a little way from LLM based curation, but the rest is pretty much here!
I wish there was an LLM that would automatically curate and write the weekly auction highlights for me, while I sit poolside!