Part 3 of How and Why Did Cartier Watches Become So Popular? 2018 - Feb 2024 Edition

In Part 1, I listed in chronological order the major events and sociological changes that led to the rise in popularity of Cartier watches since 2018. In Part 2, I wrote how it follows the classic pattern of a trend, as described in ‘Anatomy of a Trend’ by Henrik Vejlgaard. In Part 3, I will extrapolate from the basic concepts in Part 2 to write about some not so obvious takeaways and think about the future.

1. The aforementioned pendulum currently sits with simpler (but not minimalist¹), smaller, dressier watches, as represented most famously by Cartiers. Interestingly, Cartier watches have always been associated with simpler fashion - Jacqueline Kennedy, who epitomized casual elegance in the 1960/70’s, famously wore a Tank. The Cartier CPCP line coincided with the rise of simpler Ralph Lauren and Prada clothing in the late 1990’s. Today, many purveyors of the simpler, post-pandemic ‘comfortable elegance’ fashion trend (such as Simon Crompton of PermanentStyle and Oliver Dannefalk of Rubato) wear Cartiers. The classically-designed Collection Prive line was introduced in late 2018 and continues to be popular today, both among mainstream consumers and hardcore Cartier enthusiasts.

   

   Source: The Anatomy of a Trend by Henrik Vejlgaard

   In contrast, the AP Royal Oak Offshore came to prominence in the more ornamental 2000’s (also here). If I were to update the above graph from its cutoff in 2000, I would show the pendulum slowly oscillating to the opposite direction from about 2010, and by 2020 would be firmly on the Simplicity side. (Note - I don’t agree a 100% with this graph - there was a resurgence in ornamentation in the 1930’s, at least in terms of accessories’ design). So a shift to more ornamental fashion designs could portend an end to the current Cartier trend. However, much more data analysis is necessary to understand the relationship between fashion and watch trends. Also note that watch (and other accessories) preference probably lags fashion, due to higher price and lower elasticity of supply.

   

   The elegantly casual Kennedys wore Cartiers. Source: SwissWatchExpo, here.

2. Social media allows easier and more frequent trendsetter observation, but is insufficient to create trends. In addition to a strong trendsetter(s) with a poly-social reach, a trend must be supported by a large, underlying sociological change where preferences and behavior are also changing. In the case of Cartier, it required 2 prominent trendsetters, a bestseller book and a worldwide epidemic. Trends are hard to initiate - even the most concerted efforts (usually anniversaries) end up as fads that last 1-2 seasons at best. Any attempted organized effort is also challenging due to the extreme fragmentation and globalized nature of the vintage/pre-owned watches trade. Despite this, narratives about Bond-villain dealers and auctioneers planning intricate schemes to fleece destitute collectors remain popular. Most actual shenanigans can be categorized as dishonest misrepresentations, which are many orders of magnitude easier to execute than deliberate instigation of trends.

3. Social media creates the illusion that dealers are instigating (“hyping”) a trend, but in reality, the trend has already been initiated by trendsetters, (who are usually prescient collectors and/or celebrities), and supported by the larger, underlying sociological changes. The majority of dealers are trend-followers (at best) because we require some indication that there is demand for a product.² Furthermore, the influence of trend-following watch dealers appealing to vintage watch fandom on social media is quite limited, and further constrained by the limited supply of product. Are they any more effective than the algorithm-powered ads in a feed? Trendsetters on the other hand do not require repeated observations (nor social acceptability) to sense a trend; they can be inspired by 1 photo or 1 passerby and quickly transact on it and garner emulation by those downstream. Participants downstream from trendsetters need more observation and hence time to act. See point 6 in Part 2. By “hyping”, what is probably meant is the increase in the # of times a trendsetter‘s watch is observed on social media, changing its social acceptability and consequently, increasing its demand. For conservatives/anti-innovators, these new changes in social acceptability are difficult to keep abreast of, and the source of much cynicism.

4. As you see in the TikTok/Instagram videos, vintage dealers are 1. sourcing product that is challenging, capital-intensive, and risky to obtain, and 2. serve mostly trend-followers (and maybe some early mainstreamers) who contribute to the overwhelming majority of the transactions (see the orange dotted lines on the diagram in Part 2). Although data is difficult to obtain, a significant portion of these transactions are with trend-followers that are fellow dealers, and who provide much needed liquidity. (The appetite and capital of an individual collector is quite limited, whereas dealers must buy due to sales volume targets). Most of these low-margin, intra-dealer wholesale transactions are invisible to the casual observer on social media. Finally, let’s not forget that a non-trivial amount of transactions are the sale of consignments by trendsetting/trend-following collectors.

5. Below is an example of a prescient, trendsetting collector who actually transacts. The short caption of this post from Feb 2024 summarizes much of what is written in this series of posts.

   

6. Vintage Cartier watches (and vintage watches and collectibles in general) are characterized by extreme inelastic supply, which could have potentially constrained Cartier’s rise. Remember, most pre-Must vintage Cartier models were manufactured in production runs of less than 1000 units (CPCP sometimes 10% of that), and a significant portion of those left today are in subpar, non investment grade condition. Thankfully, 1. Cartier began manufacturing classically designed, vintage-inspired watches in 2018, and 2. Cartier neo-vintage from the 1990’s became a collectible category thanks to the passion and scholarship of collectors/dealers such as

   WBLDN’s Substack
   and George Cramer. In the case of vintage and neo-vintage, supply constraints are what cause such sudden upward fluctuations in auction prices. Finally, if I recall correctly, no auction house was able to organize a Cartier-theme auction, most probably due to lack of investment grade supply. However, as vintage and neo-vintage Cartiers in strong condition trickle in and settle into larger pools of private collections, in the near future we may see them released to a Big 4 for a Cartier-only auction.

7. Auction price graphs mostly reflect transactions by trendsetters and/or trend-followers. How many mainstreamer non-enthusiasts bid in Bonhams off-season or Loupe This? Auctions are cues but not evidence of trends. However, I have noticed that as auction prices increase, the watches themselves start to look aesthetically better (and vice-versa). Maybe it’s just me, and I am just a trend-follower (or maybe mainstreamer?). But a dealer who told me 10+ years ago that he hated stone-dial Day-Dates, which at the time were not very liquid, is now struggling to collect them for his personal collection. So although rising auction results are just cues of trends, for me and that dealer at least, they free us from the curse of undervaluation and help hone our aesthetic appreciation skills. I feel lucky that I am experiencing Cartier’s rise and enjoy buying them more today than when they were cheaper 5 years ago.

8. As the trend moves downstream, some trendsetters begin to search for alternatives, creating vectors; the first candidate is Piaget, perfectly timed with the release of the Polo re-interpretation. Piaget shares several characteristics with Cartier, including a French jewelry heritage. Some Piaget models including one I’ve highlighted before (AH23120522) even look like copies of Tanks. Another trend vector could be the Jaeger LeCoultre Reverso, which conveniently celebrated its 90th anniversary recently Although lacking the brand equity and model variety of Cartier, JLC was French-market focused, the Reverso has a storied history, and its case is elegantly-shaped (size is a separate topic). Will Piaget break out downstream from the trendsetter phase or remain a fad, only traded among trendsetters? How about JLC?

9. Trend vectors are based on shared characteristics with the original (classic Cartier) trend, but mutate and evolve, kind of like DNA. Differing characteristics of the new alternatives are added while some characteristics are discarded to create a new mix of what is socially acceptable/desirable. In addition to some shared characteristics with Cartier, many Piagets benefited from having stone dials, a desirable design element inherited from the much more expensive stone dial Rolex Day-Dates. But Piagets also brought new characteristics - most Polos are quartz-powered, and many iconic Piaget references have integrated jewelry bracelets. Will any of those characteristics become desirable as the vector mutates? (Nobody remembers, but there was a futile, short-lived attempt to popularize integrated jewelry bracelet watches back in 2017-8 if I recall correctly). After all, Oysterquartz never really was unpopular and the FP Journe Elegante seems to be quite popular. (Also see here an enjoyable review of the Elegante by

   kingflum
   ). Theoretically, you could make a statistical model that attempts to track and predict fads (and maybe trends) based on certain standardized characteristic tags. (I’ll keep my own predictions to myself).

10. Several startups claim to leverage “AI” to identify and forecast fashion and preference trends. This generally entails identifying, tagging, annotating, counting and synthesizing photos extracted from social media and then extrapolating. However, if a trend has appeared several times on social media, it’s probably too late and already at the stage of trend-following. In addition, AI models are pretty inept at forecasting. (UPDATE: The new LLM Claude 3 OPUS is now able to forecast without prior simulation). The value is in trend-setting, (not trend-following), which currently sits securely in the domain of humans such as Kanye West and Tyler, the Creator.

11. Vejlgaard’s book ‘The Anatomy of a Trend’ was published in the pre-AI world of 2012. Yet here are some interesting statements:

[Trend] predictability arises from the fact that they are sociological process that involve human beings, and human behavior in the aggregate can sometimes be quite predictable […] Trends are always created by people, so trend spotting is about watching people who create or are preoccupied with new and innovative styles.

Humans emulate other humans. And as we have learned, we tend to value and emulate trendsetters, who ironically are least concerned about the very human obsession with social acceptability. Today, it is almost unthinkable that an AI-powered robot or android would be able to initiate a trend among humans. But will our children hold the same values? It is not inconceivable that posterity would prefer android over human trendsetters. In such a world, the current day controversies around hyping will sound quaint.

Source: DALL-E Prompt: can you draw a realistic picture of a cool android robot wearing a vintage cartier watch?

1. Cartiers and Piagets are simpler than AP Off Shores, but they are not minimalist. Minimalist watches such as Nomos are more extreme and less elegant. Cartiers maintain some ornamentation, usually in the shape of the case.

2. Some dealers are also passionate collectors who are many steps ahead of trend-followers, and could be classified as trendsetters. Profitability is not the goal of passionate personal collecting. Understandably, this causes a lot of confusion.