Recently, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS) released their regular monthly statistics on Swiss watch exports. The report is a very convenient summary based on watch export data from Swiss customs (FOCBS). The FHS provides value by eliminating the labor of sifting through the Swiss-Impex database (a big thank you to Jessica at FHS). The report is then repackaged by various jewelry/watch media for general readership. Here is a screenshot from the FHS February 2025 update:
I always assumed that luxury abroad was a combination of conspicuous discount consumption and an arb on the strong dollar (relative the europoors). Luxury is hurting, but you still have to go on vacation (bc of signaling effects) so why not Italy (which is cheap) and do some fancy shopping while you're there. Actually wrote about it once https://www.therandomwalk.co/i/156024996/buying-luxury-abroad
Yes!!! Especially if you live in a high sales tax state, buying new luxury items abroad is probably cheaper, esp after VAT refunds. Re pre-owned luxury, it may be cheaper to buy in the US, but easier to access in retail agglomerated Japan/Europe. At the moment, the US consumer is driving pretty much all the growth in the Swiss watch industry. Will post a US specific graph in my next post.
Depending on what you care about, the Swiss export numbers DO in fact paint a somber picture. Over the last 25 years, total export value has roughly doubled, but I think more importantly total export volumes have halved. So in my opinion, no, Swiss watch exports are not doing just fine. I'll share the long-term FHS data I have with you via DM.
Interesting, I was not able to get # of units exported from the FHS. But the market does seem to be absorbing all the new supply pretty quickly, especially the very high value (Richard Mille etc) models and all the new brands coming out. Will have a look at your data tonight!
I always assumed that luxury abroad was a combination of conspicuous discount consumption and an arb on the strong dollar (relative the europoors). Luxury is hurting, but you still have to go on vacation (bc of signaling effects) so why not Italy (which is cheap) and do some fancy shopping while you're there. Actually wrote about it once https://www.therandomwalk.co/i/156024996/buying-luxury-abroad
Yes!!! Especially if you live in a high sales tax state, buying new luxury items abroad is probably cheaper, esp after VAT refunds. Re pre-owned luxury, it may be cheaper to buy in the US, but easier to access in retail agglomerated Japan/Europe. At the moment, the US consumer is driving pretty much all the growth in the Swiss watch industry. Will post a US specific graph in my next post.
Depending on what you care about, the Swiss export numbers DO in fact paint a somber picture. Over the last 25 years, total export value has roughly doubled, but I think more importantly total export volumes have halved. So in my opinion, no, Swiss watch exports are not doing just fine. I'll share the long-term FHS data I have with you via DM.
Interesting, I was not able to get # of units exported from the FHS. But the market does seem to be absorbing all the new supply pretty quickly, especially the very high value (Richard Mille etc) models and all the new brands coming out. Will have a look at your data tonight!